Tuesday, June 10, 2008

El mito del milagro asiatico

"Finally, the realities of East Asian growth suggest that we may have to unlearn some popular lessons. It has become common to assert that East Asian economic success demonstrates the fallacy of our traditional laissez-faire approach to economic policy and that the growth of these economics shows the effectiveness of sophisticated industrial policies and selective protectionism. Authors such as James Fallows have asserted that the nations of that region have evolved a common "Asian system," whose lessons we ignore at our peril. The extremely diverse institutions and policies of the various newly industrialized Asian countries, let alone Japan, cannot really be called a common system. But in any case, if Asian success reflects the benefits of strategic trade and industrial policies, those benefits should surely be manifested in an unusual and impressive rate of growth in the efficiency of the economy. And there is no sign of such exceptional efficiency growth.

The newly industrializing countries of the Pacific Rim have received a reward for their extraordinary mobilization of resources that is no more than what the most boringly conventional economic theory would lead us to expect. If there is a secret to Asian growth, it is simply deferred gratification, the willingness to sacrifice current satisfaction for future gain."

El texto es del excelente articulo de Paul Krugman de hace mas de una decada sobre la realidad del ascenso de los tigres asiaticos. Dice Krugman que no fue un crecimiento basado en grandes aumentos de productividad sino en aumentar la cantidad de trabajadores y de capital en el "sistema económico". Algo parecido a lo que hizo la Unión Sovietica. Nada espectacular.

Uno de los mejores articulos sobre crecimiento económico que he leído en mucho tiempo. De esos que cambian creencias y derrumban mitos. Algo largo, levemente técnico, pero muy recomendado. Sobre todo para los entusiastas de políticas industriales.